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Record share of Americans have never married

By WENDY WANG and KIM PARKER

Pew Research Center

After decades of declining marriage rates and changes in family structure, the share of American adults who have never been married is at an historic high.

In 2012, one-in-five adults ages 25 and older (about 42 million people) had never been married, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of census data.

In 1960, only about one-in-ten adults (9 percent) in that age range had never been married.

Men are more likely than women to have never been married (23 percent vs. 17 percent in 2012).

And this gender gap has widened since 1960, when 10 percent of men ages 25 and older and 8 percent of women of the same age had never married.

The dramatic rise in the share of never-married adults and the emerging gender gap are related to a variety of factors. Adults are marrying later in life, and the shares of adults cohabiting and raising children outside of marriage have increased significantly. The median age at first marriage is now 27 for women and 29 for men, up from 20 for women and 23 for men in 1960.2 About a quarter (24 percent) of never-married young adults ages 25 to 34 are living with a partner, according to Pew Research analysis of Current Population Survey data.

In addition, shifting public attitudes, hard economic times and changing demographic patterns may all be contributing to the rising share of never-married adults.

This trend cuts across all major racial and ethnic groups but has been more pronounced among blacks. Fully 36 percent of blacks ages 25 and older had never been married in 2012, up from 9 percent in 1960. For whites and Hispanics, the share of never-married adults has roughly doubled over that same period. In 2012, 16 percent of whites and 26 percent of Hispanics had never been married.

Recent survey data from the Pew Research Center finds a public that is deeply divided over the role marriage plays in society.

Survey respondents were asked which of the following statements came closer to their own views: Society is better off if people make marriage and having children a priority, or society is just as well off if people have priorities other than marriage and children. Some 46 percent of adults chose the first statement, while 50 percent chose the second.

Opinions on this issue differ sharply by age-with young adults much more likely than older adults to say society is just as well off if people have priorities other than marriage and children.

Fully two-thirds of those ages 18 to 29 (67 percent) express this viewpoint, as do 53 percent of those ages 30 to 49. Among those ages 50 and older, most (55 percent) say society is better off if people make it a priority to get married and have children.

Despite these mixed views about the role of marriage in society, most Americans (68 percent) continue to believe it is important for couples to marry if they plan to spend the rest of their lives together. Roughly half of all adults (47 percent) believe that this is very important, and an additional 21 percent consider it somewhat important.

While blacks are more likely than whites to have never been married (and less likely to be currently married), a much higher share of blacks (58 percent) than whites (44 percent) say that it’s very important for a couple to marry if they plan to spend their lives together.

What Never-Married Adults

Are Looking For in a

(Potential) Spouse

A new Pew Research survey finds that about half of all never-married adults (53 percent) say they would like to marry eventually. This share is down somewhat from 2010, when 61 percent of never-married adults said they would like to marry someday.

Roughly one-third of today’s never-married adults (32 percent) say they are not sure if they would like to get married, while 13 percent say they do not want to marry.

But the survey also finds that, among the never married, men and women are looking for distinctly different qualities in a potential mate. Never-married women place a great deal of importance on finding someone who has a steady job-fully 78 percent say this would be very important to them in choosing a spouse or partner.

For never-married men, someone who shares their ideas about raising children is more important in choosing a spouse than someone who has a steady job.

Never-married adults-whether male or female-place a much lower priority on finding a partner who shares their moral and religious beliefs, has a similar educational pedigree or comes from the same racial or ethnic background.

Among those who have never been married but say they may eventually like to wed, three-in-ten say the main reason they are not married is that they have not found someone who has what they are looking for in a spouse. Nearly as many (27 percent) say they are not financially prepared for marriage, and 22 percent say they are too young or not ready to settle down. There are no significant differences between never-married men and women in this regard.

Never-Married Adults Face Changing Economic Realities

As the share of never-married adults has climbed, the economic circumstances faced by both men and women have changed considerably. Labor force participation among men-particularly young men-has fallen significantly over the past several decades. In 1960, 93 percent of men ages 25 to 34 were in the labor force; by 2012 that share had fallen to 82 percent.

And among young men who are employed, wages have fallen over the past few decades. For men ages 25 to 34, median hourly wages have declined 20 percent since 1980 (after adjusting for inflation). Over the same period, the wage gap between men and women has narrowed. In 2012, among workers ages 25 to 34, women’s hourly earnings were 93 percent those of men. In 1980, the ratio was less than 70 percent.

The new Pew Research survey findings suggest that never-married women place a high premium on finding a spouse with a steady job. However, the changes in the labor market have contributed to a shrinking pool of available employed young men.

Among never-married adults ages 25 to 34, the number of employed men per 100 women dropped from 139 in 1960 to 91 in 2012, despite the fact that men in this age group outnumber young women in absolute numbers.

In other words, if all never-married young women in 2012 wanted to find a young employed man who had also never been married, 9 percent of them would fail, simply because there are not enough men in the target group. Five decades ago, never-married young women had a much larger pool of potential spouses from which to choose.

Despite the survey finding that few Americans say it is very important to them to find someone of the same racial or ethnic background to marry, the vast majority of new marriages (85 percent) take place between people of the same race and ethnicity. The pool of employed men has shrunk for both black and white young adults since 1960, but the decline has been more pronounced among blacks.

It is important to note that never-married young adults are not necessarily restricting their choice of a potential spouse to those who have never been married, nor are they limited to a spouse within their age group.

Among all unmarried adults ages 25 to 34 in 2012, 15 percent have been divorced, separated or widowed, and these men and women are potentially in the marriage market as well.

Gender, Education

and Marriage

The relationship between education and marital status has changed considerably over time, and the patterns among men and women have reversed. In 1960, men of various education levels were about equally likely to have never been married.

Today, there is considerable disparity in the shares of never-married men along educational lines. Men with a high school education or less are much more likely than men with advanced degrees to have never married (25 percent vs. 14 percent).

For women, the opposite trend has occurred. In 1960, women with advanced degrees (31 percent) were about four times as likely to have never married as women with a high school education or less (7 percent). These educational gaps have closed over time, and today women of different educational backgrounds are almost equally likely to have never been married.

Over this same period, women have made significant gains in higher education.

The number of young women attending college has grown steadily, and by the mid-1990s, women began to outpace men in college enrollment and college completion rates. In 2013, among women ages 25 to 29, 37 percent had at least a bachelor’s degree, compared with 30 percent of men in the same age range.

The changing gender patterns in the link between education and marital status have contributed to an educational mismatch between never-married men and women.

Today, never-married women ages 25 and older are more educated overall than never-married men: One-third of these women have either a bachelor’s or advanced degree, compared with one-quarter of never-married men ages 25 and older.

In 1960, never-married men and women were much more similar in terms of their educational attainment.

Race, Ethnicity

and Marriage

The share of never-married adults has gone up for all major racial and ethnic groups in the U.S., but the rate of increase has been most dramatic among blacks. Among black adults ages 25 and older, the share who has never been married has quadrupled over the past half century-from 9 percent in 1960 to 36 percent in 2012. For whites, the share has doubled (from 8 percent to 16 percent).

Among Hispanics and Asian Americans, whose numbers have swelled in recent decades due to a large influx of immigrants, the share of adults who have never married also has increased. Among Hispanic adults, the share has doubled since 1980 (12 percent vs. 26 percent). And for Asian American adults, the share has gone up from 13 percent in 1980 to 19 percent in 2012.

In most racial and ethnic groups, men are more likely than women to have never been married. The major exception is among blacks.

In 2012, roughly equal shares of black men (36 percent) and black women (35 percent) ages 25 and older had never been married. In 1960, black men were more likely than black women to have never been married (12 percent vs. 8 percent). Among whites, Hispanics and Asians, men are more likely than women to have never been married, and the gender gap among whites and Hispanics has widened in recent decades.

Will Today’s Never-Married Adults Eventually Marry?

Today’s young adults are slow to tie the knot, and a rising share may end up not getting married at all. According to Pew Research projections based on census data, when today’s young adults reach their mid-40s to mid-50s, a record high share (25 percent) is likely to have never been married.

Looking at cohorts of young adults ages 25 to 34 going back to 1960, there has been a steady increase since 1970 in the share that remains never married by the time the cohort reaches ages 45 to 54.

In 1960, some 12 percent of adults ages 25 to 34 had never been married. After 10 years, when that group was between the ages of 35 and 44, 7 percent of them still hadn’t wed. By 1980, when they were in their mid-40s to -50s, only 5 percent had still never married.

The next cohort starting in 1970 followed a similar trajectory.

However, each new cohort of young adults since then has had a higher share of never-married members than the cohort that came before it. If current trends continue, 25 percent of young adults in the most recent cohort (ages 25 to 34 in 2010) will have never married by 2030. That would be the highest share in modern history.

While it is certainly true that some adults marry for the first time after the age of 54, the chances of this occurring are relatively small. In 2012, there were 71 first-time newlyweds for every 1,000 never-married adults ages 25 to 34.10

The rate dropped to 40 per 1,000 among never-married adults ages 35 to 44, 16 per 1,000 among never-married adults ages 45 to 54, and only 7 per 1,000 among never-married adults ages 55 and older.

About the Data: Findings in this PewResearch.org report are based mainly on two sources: data from a recent Pew Research Center survey, decennial censuses and the American Community Survey.

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