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LOCK HAVEN -- Heavy rain continuing through today is likely to cause some area streams and creeks to reach the point of moderate flooding, according to the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.
Nearly two inches of rain had already fallen across some of Clinton and Lycoming counties, with around an inch and a half throughout the vast majority of Clinton, Centre and Lycoming counties -- and, according to both NWS forecast and the GFS weather model, another inch to an inch-and-a-half of rainfall was expected by midnight tonight, before the storm tapers off.
All this rain is expected to dramatically increase area stream and river levels, with a flood watch already issued for much of the area Tuesday afternoon.
Bald Eagle Creek at Beech Creek Station was among those expected to rise the most: a crest of 12.4 feet is expected in the early morning hours on Thursday. The moderate flooding stage is 13 feet, while the minor flooding stage is at 11 feet, which the creek is expected to reach by 6 p.m. tonight.
In Renovo, the Susquehanna River is forecast to crest at 13.5 feet at 8 a.m. on Thursday. The action stage there is 12 feet, but the river can reach 16 feet before hitting the minor flood stage.
Downstream in Lock Haven, the Susquehanna River at Lock Haven is forecast to crest at 18.7 feet at 2 p.m. on Thursday -- about halfway between the action and minor flooding stages.
The Susquehanna River at Jersey Shore is not forecast to reach the action stage, although it will see a very significant rise: from 3.74 feet Tuesday afternoon to a crest of 20.2 feet at 2 p.m. on Thursday. The action stage in Jersey Shore is at 23 feet.
Showers and snow showers will linger on after the bulk of the storm passes through on Thursday and Friday, although they are unlikely to add noticeably to the storm's total rainfall.
By the weekend, skies should be clearing and temperatures will be warming, as the region will get a few days to dry out and let the waters recede a bit. Looking at long-range models, the next notable rain will likely be at least a week out.