Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Scott Perry, former chairman of the Freedom Caucus, speaks with reporters following a closed-door meeting of GOP lawmakers on Monday, Oct. 16, 2023. (Jennifer Shutt/States Newsroom)

For the second quarter in a row, Republican U.S. House members in Pennsylvania significantly outraised their Democratic colleagues and challengers.

The six top fundraisers among the commonwealth’s 17-member House delegation over the past three months are GOP incumbents. However, the top four fundraisers, U.S. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-1st District), Rob Bresnahan (R-8th District), Scott Perry (R-10th District), and Ryan Mackenzie (R-7th District), are being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) as seats it is prioritizing to flip in 2026.

Republicans maintaining their current narrow majority beyond 2026 may hinge upon those few key races in Pennsylvania.

Christopher Borick, director of Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion, told the Capital-Star he thinks Republicans outraising Democrats in Pennsylvania at this point in the cycle is a sign that they are aware of the challenge that is in front of them next year.

“Other than Fitzpatrick, the other three races were very close in 2024 with a Republican president carrying the state and maybe helping some people over the finish line,” Borick said.

“Now, you’re facing a cycle that is likely to be one in which the Republicans are heading into a headwind because of the natural cycles of American politics, with midterms often being hard on the president’s party,” he added.

With President Donald Trump’s approval ratings low and polling indicating that his spending plan isn’t popular with the voters, Borick notes it’s also a sign that Republicans will need to raise significant funds to hold onto their 10-7 advantage in Pennsylvania to maintain their overall majority.

“I think it’s those fundraising numbers that are a recognition that it’s going to take all hands on deck to preserve these seats, and that it’s likely that those Republican candidates, maybe other than Fitzpatrick, are going to have to outspend their eventual Democratic opponents, given the broader conditions in the cycle,” Borick said.

A few Democratic challengers have just filed their first campaign finance report, while others have joined the race this month.

Here’s a look at the fundraising breakdown of the House races that are expected to be the most competitive in Pennsylvania in 2026 and other storylines worth following next year and beyond.

Fitzpatrick leads Pa.’s

congressional

delegation for second quarter in a row

Fitzpatrick raised more than any U.S. House candidate in Pennsylvania, for the second quarter in a row. His campaign picked up $1.3 million from the beginning of April until the end of June and spent just under $210,000.

He’s the only U.S. House member in the state’s congressional delegation to raise over $1 million in a quarter this year, having done so back-to-back. His campaign entered July with $6.47 million on hand, which is the most among the 17 members from the commonwealth, and $2 million more than any other incumbent in Pennsylvania, campaign finance records show. At this point in 2023, Fitzpatrick’s campaign had $2.88 million on hand.

Fitzpatrick, who represents a purple district in the suburbs north of Philadelphia, is serving his fifth term in Congress.

Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, a Democrat, is the only other candidate who has filed to run for the 1st Congressional District. He joined the race in early April and just submitted his first campaign finance report.

Harvie’s campaign raised $340,000 since he announced his bid in early April to the end of June and spent just under $145,000. He entered July with $195,000 on hand.

Fitzpatrick is the only Republican member of the state’s House delegation to vote against Trump’s spending package earlier this month, which came after the previous quarter ended.

“I think he’ll be able to continue to raise significant campaign finances, despite his break with the party on what one might consider the most pivotal legislative item,” Borick said.

Borick added he thinks Fitzpatrick is “in a bit of his own category,” noting that he and his brother, the late Mike Fitzpatrick, have both represented the district. Fitzpatrick has also fended off challenges in primary elections in recent cycles.

National ratings outlets like the Cook Political Report describe the race for the 1st Congressional District as “likely Republican.”

Mackenzie raises $800,000, leading all Democratic challengers

GOP Congressman Ryan Mackenzie, a freshman lawmaker who unseated U.S. Rep. Susan Wild (D-Lehigh) by 1 point in 2024, raised just over $800,000 from the beginning of April to the end of June and spent a little more than $210,000. His campaign entered July with $1.19 million on hand.

Thus far, three Democrats have announced their intention to seek their party’s nomination for the seat in the Lehigh Valley.

Ryan Crosswell, a former federal prosecutor, currently leads the fundraising race among the Democratic candidates. His campaign raised $320,000 since entering the race in early June to the end of that month, and spent just over $65,000. He entered July with just under $255,000, which is more than any other Democratic challenger in the race, as well.

Carol Obando-Derstine, who worked as an aide to former U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, raised just under $210,000 since joining the race in early May to the end of June, which includes $12,500 she loaned to her campaign. She spent $85,000 during that time period and entered July with slightly less than $125,000.

Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure raised just over $85,000 from the beginning of April to the end of June and spent $80,000. Since launching his campaign in February, he’s raised just under $230,000.

As of July 21, Mackenzie has drawn the most Democratic challengers of the races the DCCC is targeting to flip in Pennsylvania next year.

“The biggest factor, I think, in the Democratic interest that we’re seeing is the perception that this district is ripe for the right to flip back,” Borick said.

The district is very centrist, Borick said, which is part of the reason why he thinks Democrats are confident that they can compete in 2026.

“I think that this is the one that Democrats are most excited about to flip,” Borick said.

“The 8th (District) has become more of a Republican-leaning district over time, and it’s one that I think Democrats think they could flip back in with the right candidate, but might be a little bit more of an uphill battle,” he added. “The 7th (District) is one they think that they could be really primed to do on that and that’s probably increasing the amount of interest that you’re seeing.”

The Cook Political Report describes the race as a “toss-up.”

Perry raises $885,000 as he gears up for a potential rematch with Janelle

Stelson

Scott Perry, who is currently serving his seventh term in Congress, raised $885,000 from the beginning of April to the end of June and spent just under $240,000. He entered July with $1.2 million, which is more than double what he had at this point in the previous cycle, when his campaign entered July 2023 with just under $540,000 on hand.

His successful 2024 run was his closest race, defeating Democrat Janelle Stelson, a former central Pennsylvania television anchor, by 1.2 points.

A rematch may occur for the southcentral Pennsylvania district with Stelson formally announcing her entrance into the race in mid-July.

Stelson’s campaign said they raised more than $500,000 in the first 48 hours after the announcement. Gov. Josh Shapiro endorsed Stelson for the seat and joined her for a campaign event last week.

Despite Republicans having success up and down the ballot in Pennsylvania in 2024, the race for the 10th Congressional District was one of the closest House races in the country. Borick thinks that Stelson can use that as an effective way to raise funds leading into 2026.

“I think that’s probably a pretty compelling pitch that she’ll be able to make, and I would expect her to be pretty successful fundraising this year because of the nature of the district and her past performance,” Borick said.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as a “toss-up.”

Bresnahan brings in

second

highest haul in Q2

Bresnahan, who bested Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright by roughly 1.5 points in 2024, raised the second largest amount of money among the state’s congressional delegation for the second consecutive quarter. He picked up just over $890,000 from the beginning of April to the end of June and spent just under $745,000. The freshman lawmaker’s campaign entered July with just over $860,000 on hand.

Cartwright announced in June that he wouldn’t seek the Democratic Party nomination for the seat, which ended the chatter about a potential rematch for the seat in northeast Pennsylvania. A few Democrats have been mentioned as potential candidates, but none have formally announced their entrance as of mid-July.

The Cook Political Report tags the race as “leans Republican.”

A “high priced

primary” for the 3rd

Congressional

District

After months of speculation, U.S. Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) officially announced in late June that he was not going to seek reelection for the 3rd Congressional District.

Shortly after Evans confirmed he would not be on the ballot next year, state Sen. Sharif Street, chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, and state Rep. Chris Rabb (D-Philadelphia) declared that they would be running for the seat representing nearly half of Philadelphia.

Since it’s a safe Democratic district, the winner will likely be determined by the primary election next year.

“If you win that primary, you’re going to Congress,” Borick said. “It’s as simple as that.”

He also noted that since the race is taking place entirely inside the Philadelphia media market, it will also make the race more expensive.

“I expect it to be a very costly primary fight, most likely the most costly,” Borick said. “I guess the 7th (Congressional District) will be pretty costly too, but given where it’s located, the players that are coming in, the cost of the market, it’s going to be a high price tag.”

“I’d expect that to be among the most pricey primaries we see in this cycle,” he added.

Since Street and Rabb just announced their candidacies, they did not raise money in the previous quarter, although Street’s campaign entered July with just over $52,000 on hand.

Although the two lawmakers are the two most-well known names currently seeking the seat, there are two other Democrats who have filed to run, with one already filing a campaign finance report.

Dave Oxman, a physician, raised just over $280,000 from the beginning of April to the end of June, which includes a $100,000 loan he gave to his campaign. He entered July with just under $260,000 on hand.

Robin Toldens, who the Philadelphia Inquirer reports is a former city government employee and real estate agent, did not submit a campaign finance report for the previous quarter.

Governor’s election

slated to

impact closely watched U.S. House races

During any election, races at the top of the ticket can impact down-ballot contests.

In 2026, the governor’s race will be the marquee race. Gov. Josh Shapiro’s expected bid for a second term could play a role in determining some of the competitive races for the House.

“I think that’s why Republicans are so passionate about getting a good (candidate at the) top of the ticket, why they want someone like (Stacy) Garrity.” Borick said.

Garrity, a Republican who is serving her second term as state treasurer, has expressed interest in challenging Shapiro in 2026, although has not formally announced her entrance into the race. She broke the record in Pennsylvania for most votes won by a candidate for statewide office in 2024. That record was previously held by Shapiro during his 2022 double digit victory over GOP state Sen. Doug Mastriano.

“There was the belief that in 2022 the Republican top of the ticket with Mastriano might have cost some Republicans with close seats,” Borick said.

Mastriano is also reportedly weighing another bid for governor.

The Pennsylvania Republican Party is slated to meet in September to endorse a gubernatorial candidate.

Shapiro has held a steady positive approval rating during his tenure in the governor’s office. A recent Morning Consult poll showed Shapiro with a 61% approval rating.

“Knocking off Shapiro is going to be a challenge for certain, but making sure you’re not decimated at the top of the ticket is crucial to these down-ballot races,” Borick said.

The margin of the governor’s race could also play a role in determining these closely watched U.S. House races.

“I think that’s going to be a big, big part of the 2026 puzzle,” Borick said.

Fetterman’s fundraising sees slight uptick, but still traiLS previous year’s totals

Democratic U.S. Sen. John Fetterman’s Q2 haul is an increase from the previous quarter, but still trails what he’s raised halfway through the two previous years.

From the beginning of April to the end of June, Fetterman’s campaign raised just over $505,000 and spent a little less than $555,000. In the first three months of the year, he raised just over $395,000, which was the smallest amount he’s raised in a full quarter since he announced he was running for the U.S. Senate in February 2021.

Prior to this year, his lowest three-month fundraising haul was the $720,000 his campaign raised from the beginning of April to the end of June in 2023.

It is also the second consecutive quarter where Fetterman’s campaign has spent more than it has raised. He’s raised just over $900,000 so far in 2025.

At this point in 2024, Fetterman garnered $1.81 million, which is double the amount of his current haul for 2025. In 2023, he raised $1.73 million halfway through the year.

“The reality is, Fetterman has probably caused some of his past donors to lose some level of enthusiasm for him, probably a lot, in some cases,” Borick said.

Since Trump was sworn-in for a second term, Fetterman has been criticized by some Democrats and other progressive organizations for some of his statements, votes, and positions he’s taken.

A Morning Consult poll released on July 16 showed that Fetterman has seen a 33-point decline in his net approval rating since the end of 2024 from fellow Democrats. The poll’s coverage cites his “staunch defense of Israel and validation of the GOP’s hawkish position on immigration” for the drop in approval rating among Democrats, although it has helped improve his numbers among Republicans.

A recent Susquehanna Polling and Research survey also showed that Fetterman had a higher approval rating among Republicans over Democrats in the state. Overall, he has 41% approval rating, while 37% disapprove.

Borick said he thinks there is a slice of people who support Fetterman’s recent positions who may be inclined to give him more contributions.

“But has he lost more by some of his stances, sometimes in relation to Trump and some Trump policies and a whole variety of issues,” Borick said. “My take is he’s lost more there right now.”

“That’s probably affecting his fundraising,” he added.

Fetterman was a fundraising juggernaut during his successful 2022 bid against Republican Mehmet Oz, with his campaign raking in $73.9 million on his way to flipping the open-seat blue.

He’s not up for re-election until 2028, so there is time for him to regain support. Borick said previous donors could come back around in the next election, depending on who the choices are and if he decides to seek a second term.

“But they’re in no rush to do so right now,” Borick said.

Fetterman entered July with $2.24 million on hand.

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Pennsylvania Capital-Star is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Pennsylvania Capital-Star maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Tim Lambert for questions: info@penncapital-star.com. Follow Pennsylvania Capital-Star on Facebook and Twitter.