Shapiro, a Democrat, has been on a steady upward political trajectory for more than 20 years without an electoral defeat. After this year’s governor’s race, the former Pennsylvania attorney general, Montgomery County commissioner and state representative is widely expected to set his sights on the party’s nomination for president in 2028.

Voters will judge Shapiro on his record of running the commonwealth. While Republicans say there’s plenty to criticize, such as three late budgets and lingering questions about a sexual harassment scandal involving a top aide, Democratic and Republican political experts say his appeal to a broad swath of voters is undeniable.

“Josh Shapiro is easily the most popular governor we have had in a long time. This is a guy that Democrats love, Independents love,” said Lehigh Valley-based GOP consultant Sam Chen, noting a group of prominent Republicans including former U.S. Reps. Charlie Dent and Jim Greenwood endorsed Shapiro in 2022. “Republicans, behind closed doors, acknowledge that.”

After nearly three years in the governor’s office, Shapiro’s approval record hit an all-time high in October, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll. His consideration as a running mate for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 elevated his profile nationally.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro speaks during the 250th anniversary of the founding of the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps, along the Delaware River, Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

And the governor’s race is expected to strongly influence down-ballot races, meaning the Democrats’ one-seat majority in the state House, the Republican three-seat majority in the Pennsylvania Senate and perhaps as least four U.S. House seats are believed to be in play this year.

“Politically, Josh’s victory is very key to what’s going to happen from a policy standpoint in the commonwealth and in the nation,” Philadelphia-based public affairs executive Larry Ceisler said.

Shapiro’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Shapiro’s likely opponent in November is Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, a retired U.S. Army officer and business executive serving her second term as the commonwealth’s financial manager.

An ally of President Donald Trump, Garrity has positioned herself as a champion of the people during her five years in office. She touts the Treasury’s success in returning hundreds of millions of dollars worth of unclaimed property held by the state to its rightful owners and expanding access to educational savings programs.

Garrity’s campaign plans to make the case that while Shapiro has broad approval, it’s based on a carefully crafted public image. Voters will change their minds when they see beneath the surface, Republican strategists said.

“It’s a mile wide and an inch deep,” Garrity campaign spokesman Matt Benyon told the Capital-Star. “There’s very little intensity to it. It provides us an opportunity to tell the other side of the story.”

On Dec. 23, the campaign released a video styled as a movie trailer for a dark techno-crime thriller with references to a 2011 Philadelphia stabbing case that Shapiro took over when he was state attorney general. The tagline: “It’s amazing what you can learn … when you hide in the shadows.”

Before the case was transferred to the attorney general’s office in 2018, Philadelphia officials had initially determined that Ellen Greenberg’s death was a homicide before changing it to suicide, despite the presence of more than 20 stab wounds on the 27-year-old teacher’s body.

When the medical examiner said in October he no longer believed Greenberg died by suicide, Shapiro said he stood behind the conclusion the AG’s office reached that the evidence points to suicide. He also expressed regret that his office could not provide better closure for her family.

Garrity’s campaign will also make an argument that Shapiro’s narrative of success is belied by Pennsylvania’s national rankings of its economy, education system and transportation infrastructure.

“Pennsylvania is lagging behind,” Benyon said. “What Josh Shapiro does with seemingly every breath he takes is blame President Trump.”

Republican Party of Pennsylvania spokesman James Markley said the GOP will attack Shapiro over what it says is a lack of transparency surrounding the resignation of Secretary of Legislative Affairs Mike Vereb amid a sexual harassment scandal that resulted in a $295,000 settlement with Vereb’s accuser.

The administration said during litigation over a Right to Know Law request for emails around the time the accusation was lodged that the accuser’s email account was deleted in accordance with records retention policies.

The GOP, Markley said, also plans to highlight what the party claims is a lack of transparency around security upgrades to Shapiro’s own Montgomery County home after the April firebombing of the official Governor’s Residence in April. Shapiro and his family were asleep there after celebrating Passover the night before when a Harrisburg man, at odds with the governor’s position on the war in Gaza, threw two Molotov cocktails into the state reception hall.

Cody Balmer pleaded guilty in October to attempted murder with a sentencing enhancement for terrorism and will serve 25 to 50 years in state prison. The administration has said the improvements stem from reviews by Pennsylvania State Police and independent security experts “to pinpoint security failures, review protocols, identify gaps and make concrete recommendations for improvement to the Governor’s security.”

“If he doesn’t have anything to hide, then why is he fighting so hard to block all of this information from being released to the public?” Markley said.

Daniel Mallinson, an associate professor of public policy and administration at Penn State Harrisburg said those issues offer an opportunity to question Shapiro’s judgment and character, but they may not register with voters in the way Republicans want. Mallinson noted they didn’t affect Shapiro’s popularity in real time.

“Most people aren’t as polarized. They just want the government to work and things to go their way,” he said.

Chen said those issues might also present pitfalls for Garrity, noting that Shapiro gets sympathy as the victim of an anti-semetic attack and voters may feel it’s reasonable to update security after such a breach. Likewise, Vereb was a Republican when he served in the state House before becoming one of Shapiro’s close aides in the attorney general’s office.

“You’re walking on very thin ice if you’re going to use that as an attack,” Chen said.

Shapiro’s image is that of a governor who has proven his ability to competently run a government, who has pushed for investments in education, agriculture and transportation. And while he hasn’t achieved all of those policy goals, Mallinson said Shapiro has put himself at the center of compromises and willingness to entertain proposals from those further to the left and right of him.

Mallinson said the three late budgets on Shapiro’s watch might be an angle where he is vulnerable to criticism. Although a monthslong delay of his first budget was due in part to the collapse of a school voucher deal with Senate Republicans, in each case the divided legislature has shared responsibility, Mallinson said.

Democratic strategist Neil Oxman said Shapiro has figured out how to work with the Republican Senate

“He understands better than anyone, probably since [Ed] Rendell was governor, that when the Democrats and Republicans each control houses there has to be some give and take,” Oxman said.

Shapiro has also leveraged losses into political capital by demonstrating that he is fighting for constituent groups.

“Whether or not he can get mass transit [funding] for Philadelphia and Allegheny County, just the fact that he’s fighting for it shows voters he’s fighting for them,” Oxman said.

And although Shapiro has many policy issues to figure out, such as surging energy demand and prices in the face of the AI race, Ceisler said Shapiro’s demonstrated ability to work across the aisle provides a foundation to continue negotiating.

“For all the acrimony and delay, he’s done a good job,” Ceisler said.

And while the budget delays in 2023 and 2025 that extended into the fall each year caused real disruption and expense for school districts, county governments and nonprofit organizations, the vast majority of Pennsylvanians weren’t directly affected.

Last year, the weight of the late state budget was compounded by the record 43-day federal government shutdown, which resulted in hardship for many federal workers. That may have had a detrimental effect on faith in government generally, Mallinson said

“My bigger concern is that it affects their view of government and the ability to get things done,” he said. “If you’re a voter who is not just turned off from voting by that … at the end of the day, you still have two options and you have to pick one.”