The U.S. Capitol is seen, Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)

Pennsylvania is likely to play a crucial role in determining the balance of power in Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, with four U.S. House seats expected to be competitive — more than any other state.

“Each of these districts are within a couple of points,” said pollster Berwood Yost of Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster. “There aren’t a lot of competitive districts across the United States, and so both parties want to retain those districts.”

Yost is the director of the Center for Opinion Research and the director of the Floyd Institute for Public Policy at the school

Tight margins in three races — two of which were Republican pick-ups in 2024 — make them targets for Democrats looking to regain control of the House. Another seat in the Philadelphia suburbs is a perennial goal for the Democratic Party, but voters have remained loyal to the GOP.

Though all 19 of the commonwealth’s congressional districts will be on the ballot next year, the four closely watched races and their incumbents are:

— First Congressional District, held by U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick

— 7th Congressional District, held by U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie

— 8th Congressional District, held by U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan

— 10th Congressional District, held by U.S. Rep. Scott Perry

But Yost noted challenges for the quartet.

October poll results from F&M, overseen by Yost, reported 36% of respondents felt “worse off” financially than they were a year ago in the commonwealth. One area where prices will increase substantially in 2026 are health care costs for moderate-income Pennsylvanians using marketplace plans.

Congress opted not to extend enhanced subsidies at this time, which Yost said would be “an albatross” on candidates.

“It makes all of these people vulnerable,” he continued. “Because everybody’s going to know somebody who either drops their coverage or is complaining about what they’re paying for coverage.”

Three of those Republicans — Fitzpatrick, Mackenzie and Bresnahan — signed onto a discharge petition on Dec. 17 to force a vote on extending subsidies, breaking with party leadership.

That poll also identified a drop in President Donald Trump’s popularity, with 41% believing he was doing an “excellent” or “good” job, compared to 58% who believed he was doing a “fair” or “poor” job.

“There’s a relationship between seats lost and presidential popularity,” said Yost. “The less popular the president, the more seats they tend to lose.”

Neither Mackenzie nor Bresnahan have a long congressional record in their districts, making them more at risk, Yost said. Fitzpatrick and Perry, on the other hand, have both held onto their seats against previous challenges.

The greater

political climate

James Markley, a spokesperson for the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, told the Capital-Star that next year wouldn’t be much different from previous cycles.

“2026 will be a challenge, but Pennsylvania is the ultimate swing state. Our elections are always competitive,” he said.

Wins from 2024 — from Trump down to two congressional seats that flipped from Democratic to Republican — were “tremendous victories,” he added.

“New members like Congressman Ryan MacKenzie and Congressman Rob Bresnahan are already leaving their mark on our country. Our goal is to make sure we send them back to D.C. to continue the hard work they’re doing everyday for our commonwealth and our country.”

But as Trump’s approval ratings fall, Democrats across the nation hope to tie sitting Republicans to his administration.

“All four of Pennsylvania’s swing-seat Republican congressmen are uniquely vulnerable due to their own failures and self-inflicted wounds: Bresnahan has become the poster-child of Washington corruption and is stock trading away his seat, Mackenzie is a late-night TV punchline for taking marching orders from his party bosses, Fitzpatrick has become Trump’s doormat, and Perry is so extreme that he disparaged veterans who don’t share his politics,” said Eli Cousin, the Mid-Atlantic regional press secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

“What Bresnahan, Mackenzie, Fitzpatrick, and Perry all have in common is the fact that they have overseen skyrocketing costs on everything from health care to groceries to electricity — and they will be held accountable for their records at the ballot box next November,” he continued.

Voters in midterm elections frequently turn to the minority party in Congress, but could also boost a Pennsylvania politician who is believed to have national ambitions.

As reported by Axios, Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is running for re-election next year, seeks to “engineer a blowout” in the 2026 midterms in order to gain an edge ahead of the 2028 presidential primaries. At the heart of the strategy: flipping all four congressional seats.

Two candidates openly have the backing of Shapiro in central Pennsylvania, and he appears to have favorites in the other districts, according to the publication.

1st Congressional

District: a Philly suburb

Straddling two Philadelphia collar counties — Bucks County and part of Montgomery County — U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a moderate Republican, has retained the seat even as the district swung between the two parties in 2020 and 2024 elections.

A former special assistant U.S. attorney and FBI agent, Fitzpatrick succeeded his brother, Mike, and won a seat for the first time in 2016. A Fitzpatrick has represented the area since 2008.

In 2024, Fitzpatrick earned re-election with 56% of the vote, more than 59,000 votes ahead of Democratic challenger Ashley Ehasz.

Politico analysts believe that the 2025 election results could spell trouble for the incumbent, however, after Democrats won several local seats. Most recently, Inside Elections moved the district from “likely Republican” to “leans,” citing November’s results in the area.

Across the aisle, a slate of Democrats have filed to to run against Fitzpatrick, including:

— Bucks County Commission Chair Bob Harvie

— Delaware Valley University professor Tracy Hunt

— Attorney Lucia Dora Simonelli

— And eyewear company manager Robert Strickler

Axios reported that Shapiro has “quietly” backed Harvie, though it isn’t official. John Hoban, an independent, is also running for the seat.

7th Congressional District: A Lehigh Valley “toss-up”

ne of the most competitive seats in the country is expected to be the 7th Congressional District, nestled in the Lehigh Valley.

Ryan Mackenzie, a Republican, edged out incumbent Democrat Susan Wild with 50.5% of the vote, a 4,000-vote margin, in 2024. Wild had two terms under her belt.

Roll Call ranks Mackenzie as the fourth most “vulnerable” incumbent, and all three major election forecasters (The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections) label the race as a “toss-up.”

But the national Republican fundraising arm seems to hope for a bruising primary, pointing to a December Politico report on “deep divisions” within Democrat ranks. A Dec. 1 post from the GOP called the primary “a microcosm of the whole party: messy, out of touch, and having no clear direction.”

Running for the Democratic nomination:

— Bob Brooks, firefighter and president of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association

— Former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell

— Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure

— Former PPL Electrics Utilities executive Carol Obando-Derstine

— Lehigh County Controller Mark Pinsley

Combined, the six Democratic contenders raised more than $1.5 million by October, months ahead of the May 19 primary vote.

Shapiro endorsed Brooks in December, headlining a fundraiser for the candidate later that month. Obando-Derstine has the support of Wild, who previously held the seat, and an endorsement from Emily’s List, an abortion rights organization.

8th Congressional District: Stocks and Scranton

Though Trump solidly won the Pocono-based district, boosting Republican Rob Bresnahan’s 2024 victory to flip the longtime Democrat-held seat, questions over stock trades have plagued the incumbent.

In 2024, Bresnahan defeated incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright with nearly 51% of the vote, or more than 6,000 votes. In that time, he has made over 600 stock trades, some of which came ahead of crucial votes — spurring accusations that he used his position to make advantageous trading decisions.

One such vote includes the decision to sharply cut federal Medicaid funding by adding work requirements and limiting state oversight on provider taxes. The New York Times reports that Bresnahan sold between $100,001 and $250,000 worth of bonds issued by the Allegheny County Hospital Development Authority for the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center.

He also sold up to $15,000 of stock in Centene, the country’s largest Medicaid plan provider. NBC News additionally reported another $130,000 in Medicaid-related stocks Bresnahan sold.

In defense of his moves, Bresnahan said he doesn’t tell his financial advisors what to do with stock purchases.

The freshman lawmaker, whose initial wealth came from the sale of his family’s construction business, campaigned on the promise to end lawmaker stock trading. In December, he signed a petition to force a vote on a bill to ban congressional stock trading.

The Democratic contenders are:

— Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti

— Francis McHale, a former attorney with the state Dept. of Labor and Industry

— And Scranton-based Eric Stone

Cognetti launched her bid for the seat while running for reelection this fall, followed by McHale, who criticized Cognetti for the dual campaigns.

Shapiro has “quietly” backed Cognetti, according to Axios.

10th Congressional

District: a 2024 rematch

While the other three Republicans don’t yet have challengers within their own party, the same can’t be said for U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, a retired Army National Guard brigadier general who served in Iraq.

Representing the 10th Congressional District, which includes all of Dauphin County and parts of Cumberland and York counties, at least two GOP challengers have lined up: Karen Dalton, a former staff attorney at the capitol, and Josh Hall.

Along with Mackenzie’s Lehigh Valley seat, Perry’s race is considered to be a toss-up by election ratings agencies. Perry has held a seat in Congress since 2013 and previously served in the state legislature.

He won re-election two years ago by less than 51%, just over 5,000 votes ahead of Democrat Janelle Stelson, a former television news anchor. Stelson has the nod from Shapiro, who headlined a fundraiser campaign launch for her in July.

Stelson also faces a primary before a potential rematch against Perry. Also running for the Democratic nomination are:

— Carlisle-based Jason Cass

— Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas

— And Army veteran William Lillich

Independent Isabella Harman, also an Army veteran, is also running for the seat.

Within this district and other competitive primaries, Yost noted that the right primary candidate can make a difference.

“For both parties, there have been times when base primary voters deliver a candidate that suffers at the general election,” said Yost.

Following the May primaries, the general election will be Nov. 3, 2026.

“I think the fundamental question underlying all of these races is, ‘How big is the anti-Trump sentiment? How large is the wave or how well can these congressional Republicans separate themselves from people’s feelings about Trump?” Yost said. “We’ll have to wait and see.”