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Debby remnants to bring plenty of rain, probable flooding tomorrow

SCREENSHOT VIA WEATHERNERDS.ORG A screenshot of the GFS weather model for Friday's precipitation is shown. This is one possible way the passage of Debby's remnants could play out for the state.

LOCK HAVEN — The remnants of hurricane Debby will be passing through the area starting overnight tonight and lasting through Friday evening, bringing a high likelihood of flooding with her.

Heavy rain will be the primary concern with this storm, although the possibility of some embedded supercell thunderstorms is not out of the question, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Neither is a stray tornado, mentioned mostly because Debby has a history of being a somewhat tornadic system throughout her week-long march from Florida.

However, flooding will absolutely be the primary focus.

Rainfall estimates are a bit scattered as various weather models are still undecided on the exact track she will take to the north, with some, lower estimates showing the storm moving more rapidly or further to the west.

Some example rain totals are collected here:

— National Weather Service: 3-4 inches

— The Weather Channel: 3-4 inches

— Accuweather: 3.79 inches

— GFS weather model: 3 inches

— Euro weather model: 2.5 inches

— Canadian weather model: 4 inches

There are a few other models that show lesser amounts, but even those are upwards of 1.5 inches.

An additional concern with regards to flooding: the last several days has seen a stationary frontal system parked over our area, which has brought around 1.8 inches of rain to the Williamsport weather station — the closest NWS station to Clinton County — over the last week. This means that the ground is already saturated and less rainfall will be required before ponding and flooding will occur, especially in low-lying areas or spots with poor drainage or clogged stormwater grates.

However, the major creeks and rivers are expected to hold up remarkably well despite the elevated storm totals.

As of Thursday afternoon, the US Geological Survey website was showing the following expected river crests:

— Bald Eagle Creek at Beech Creek station, 12.80 feet, Saturday at 2 a.m. This is within the minor stage for this station, with the moderate stage reached at 13 feet.

— West Branch Susquehanna at Renovo, 10.60 feet, Saturday at 8 a.m. This is just under the action stage for this station, which is reached at 12 feet.

— West Branch Susquehanna at Lock Haven, 15.30 feet, Saturday at 8 a.m. This is just under the action stage for this station, which is reached at 17 feet.

— West Branch Susquehanna at Jersey Shore, 18.80 feet, Saturday at 2 a.m. This is just under the action stage for this station, which is reached at 23 feet.

This would be terrible if there were more rain expected in the short term, but instead there is little to no rain expected next week, which will give plenty of time for things to dry out before needing to worry about more showers or thunderstorms.

In fact, while Friday will be quite rainy, Saturday looks to be a gorgeous day with Debby having pulled completely out of the area shortly after roughly 1 a.m. Saturday morning. Temperatures will be pleasant, in the mid-70s, with much more comfortable humidity and clear, sunny skies.

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