Tim Mannello

Williamsport

“When scaled to comparable population sizes, Williamsport, Pa., exhibits a higher murder rate per capita than both New York City and Los Angeles.” This startling conclusion from an AI analysis draws from crime data from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program. This analysis means that if Williamsport possessed the same population as either New York City or Los Angeles, it would theoretically experience a significantly greater number of homicides per 100,000 than these cities currently do because of its elevated per-resident killing rate.

According to this analysis, the situation regarding murder rates is similar in communities such as Kulpmont, Mount Carmel and Shamokin in Pennsylvania, and other communities across the United States. Conversely, this trend is not observed in South Williamsport, Lock Haven, and far more numerous other communities throughout Pennsylvania and the rest of the country whose murder rates are less than New York City’s.

While Williamsport’s current murder rate per 100,000 residents may exceed that of New York City, it’s important to note that New York City does not rank among the top 50 U.S. cities with the highest murder rates. This fact suggests that despite Williamsport’s higher rate compared to NYC, neither community is necessarily experiencing exceptionally high levels of violent crime on a national scale.

There appears to be no emergency in Williamsport requiring National Guard or other military intervention without requests from both the Governor of Pennsylvania and the Mayor of Williamsport, nor is such action warranted for New York City and cities with comparable murder statistics.

AI analysis provides encouraging historical context: “Violent crime rates in the colonial period were likely three times higher than peak rates observed in modern times, indicating a consistent decline in crime since the colonial era. This perspective challenges nostalgic, romanticized notions of “the good old days” that misrepresent this historical fact. This data also raises questions about anti-crime campaigns being developed before the 2026 and 2028 elections.

Many conflate media coverage with empirical data. The perception of escalating violence, often amplified by selective media reporting, can distort actual crime statistics. Statistical reality should take precedence over media sensationalism. Accurate crime data also calls into question the Big Beautiful 2026 anti-crime bill and campaign President Trump is setting up for Republicans to run on in 2026 and 2028. His campaign is conflating right wing media coverage on crime with empirical data. The perception of escalating violence, often fueled by selective reporting and incessant, infamous crime loops of the same crime episodes by these media, distorts and magnifies actual crime statistics.

Anecdotes, however often they are repeated, are not facts. It’s time for all of us to reject media sensationalism and accept statistical reality. The last thing we want is the declaration of a national emergency before the 2026 and 2028 elections because “crime is out of control” to falsely justify attempts to intimidate voters or cancel future elections. Think that could not happen? Just watch and see.